Singularity Theory - Making a Real Pokemon (Among Other Things)

Well, now that I have your attention, allow me to share with you a warning: this thread will discuss scientific theory. Despite there being some very strong evidence supporting this, what follows is still, like all things in science, unproven. A decade or two down the line, this post may look very silly indeed.

Now then, on to the science! A few years ago, I began looking into something called Technological Singularity theory. It's a theory that has emerged in the past thirty years based on research into human technological development. It promises some very surprising changes for us in the near future, will redefine everything we've ever known... and is almost completely unheard of.

So, what is Technological Singularity? Simply put, it's the idea that technological developments don't simply happen at a random or linear pace. If one charts all our major developments, from basic stone and bronze tools to modern smartphones and quantum computers, an interesting trend emerges: the closer to the present day one gets, the more quickly developments occur. For the technology-savvy, a classic example of this is Moore's Law: every couple of years, our approximate computing power doubles (I'm not doing it justice - it's a lot more nuanced than that). On looking into this, it turns out that Moore's Law is only a piece of the bigger puzzle. Not only does our computing power increase exponentially, but all of our technological developments do. This chart best demonstrates the situation:

Spoiler

From Time Magazine. That's right, I'm getting all scholarly and citational up in here.

So, where does Singularity come into this? Simple: if you look at that graph, you'll notice it goes upward faster and faster over time. Singularity is the point at which it starts going nearly directly upward - the point at which technological developments that would once have taken centuries can instead take only days. This is a strange idea, until one considers how we interact with our technology. Every time we develop some new tool or system, it saves us time. Maybe not much, but as our technology advances, these little changes add up, leaving us more time for leisure, making our work more productive... and letting us spend more time dreaming up new technologies. Once we developed computers, this effect took off - a computer is a massive research aid, and can be used to help build an even better computer, which then helps build an even better one... you get the picture.

At the end of the graph, something strange happens - the line goes straight up. This is believed to be the point at which we build a computer so powerful that it can upgrade itself without human intervention. Once that happens, each upgrade can be used to make an even better improvement, at lightning speed. The end result is a massively powerful computer, several orders of magnitude more powerful than every human brain that has ever existed, combined. Such a machine could advance human technology centuries at a time... every few seconds. Or it could kill us all, and there's not much we could do to stop it (whether or not we should build such a machine is another topic, but chances are we'll do it anyway).

So imagine any technology. Any possibility, from the direct manipulation of atoms and particles, to rapid interstellar travel, to curing death itself. If it is physically possible, in even the most remote sense, Technological Singularity can make it happen. This is where it gets its name - like the physical singularity at the center of a black hole, this is the point beyond which we cannot predict. A point of near infinite potential from which anything is possible. And when is this supposed to happen? Well, most scholarly estimates actually fall fairly close together, within five years of a single date:

2040.

Twenty-five years from today (give or take five years).

Where do Pokémon come into this? Well, one of the simpler technologies a singularity would, in theory, present is virtual reality. By stimulating the sensory areas of the brain, one could construct a virtual world indistinguishable from our own, but governed by rules of our choosing. You want a Pokémon world? Build one.

In fact, virtual reality is actually a subset of a much larger field: transhumanism, or the study of improving the human race through technological modification. Transhumanism seeks to modify the human body and mind to prevent illness, mend disability, and improve our physical and mental capabilities. At its most extreme, transhumanism suggests that it may be possible to "download" the brain, transferring the mind from its frail biological housing to an effectively immortal machine.

This is an incredibly coarse summary of an incredibly detailed topic. For those interested in reading more, I suggest the following:

The Machine Intelligence Research Institute, a group that studies artificial intelligence.

Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence, a website run by one of the foremost scholars of Technological Singularity (and also the guy who came up with synthetic text to speech). I suggest his Singularity Q&A as a starting point - it's a bit dated, but still accurate and highly informative.

This video by Extra Credits, which provides a far better summary than I could hope to give you.

I hope this was informative, entertaining, of at least worth the read. If you have any questions, feel free to ask - I'm no expert, but I've read up on this extensively.